Venezuelan industry is growing unevenly, reaching its highest level of installed capacity since 2015 and maintaining some business confidence, according to the new Industrial Outlook Survey of the third quarter of 2025, carried out by the Statistical Information System of the industrialists’ guild Conindustria.
The report offers a detailed snapshot of business sentiment, production rates, recurring challenges, and the subtle progress that sustains manufacturing in a particular environment. The survey uses a revised methodology, adjusting weightings and allowing for more nuanced insights into industrial activity, thanks to a 76% coverage of the sample —160 companies out of the 231 planned— in this latest edition.
Internal confidence holds, although it hasn’t taken off
By the third quarter of the year, Venezuelan industry found itself in a sort of limbo, experiencing a recovery that was tentative and fraught with setbacks. This sentiment was echoed throughout the business community: according to Conindustria’s findings, only 26% of surveyed companies believed the country’s economic situation was the same as or better than a year ago, with the majority perceiving the opposite. However, when asked about their own specific situation, more than half perceived an environment that was the same as or better than it had been 12 months prior.
In fact, the Industrial Confidence Index —composed of the evolution of the order book, inventory levels and production expectations— remains positive at 11.6 points, an uptick compared to the previous two quarters, but still lower than what was observed throughout 2024.
This suggests that companies have not ruled out the idea of a more manageable scenario, although they are acting with caution and less dynamism than before.
Production is growing very unevenly
Industrial production shows the same logic, as it has increased by 3.8% on an annualized basis between January and September, a moderate advance and a slower pace than the previous year, but enough to sustain operational continuity.
However, when broken down by company size, the result is more heterogeneous, with large companies leading the growth (+4.8%), while medium and small companies are growing more moderately (+2.0% and +2.1%, respectively). This is not a minor difference; rather, it reveals that —even in the same environment— the tools for dealing with uncertainty are not the same for everyone.
In fact, the growth becomes more evident when viewed by economic activity: the pharmaceutical (+28.1%), textiles and footwear (+6.1%), food (+6.0%), non-metallic (+2.1%), auto parts (+1.3%), and plastics and rubber (+0.9%) sectors are driving growth. Meanwhile, other sectors are facing contractions: wood and paper (-2.5%), chemicals (-3.0%), beverages (-4.4%), metal foundries and metal products (-11.2%), and machinery, electrical equipment, and optics (-29.1%).
Generally speaking, what predominates in the industrial field is the feeling that daily operations require constant adjustments and ongoing attention to multiple fronts.
According to those surveyed, the most frequent factors limiting production include elements associated with economic stability and resource availability. Secondary factors related to tax requirements, domestic market dynamics, and limitations in accessing bank financing were also mentioned. When broken down by company size, large companies most frequently highlighted general environmental conditions, medium-sized companies the availability of certain financial resources, and small companies the tax obligations they must meet.
The use of installed capacity maintains its momentum
One of the main findings of the survey is that the use of installed capacity has reached 48.9%, the best level since 2015. This is an advance that should not be underestimated, as it means that more plants are active, more equipment is running, and the industry is managing to maintain operations with some regularity.
However, although noteworthy, utilization still lags behind other neighboring countries such as Brazil (79%) or Colombia (80%), and is not evenly distributed among business groups, as large companies maintain levels above 70% and medium-sized companies above 60%, but small companies use less than 30% of their installed capacity, highlighting the efforts they must make to keep moving.
Orders that sustain the quarter
The order book acts as a break-even point within the quarter. 48% of companies report an increase, reflected in an average of 79 days of guaranteed work. Large companies exceed 100 days, while medium and small companies hover around 49. In a country where planning beyond a few weeks can become a risky gamble, these figures offer a measured respite.
Stable inventories and fast-moving supplies
Inventories are stable, with 70% of companies holding them at normal levels and the volume of finished goods remaining largely unchanged. However, raw material costs are increasing in 46% of companies, suggesting that some of the production growth is due to better replenishment of supplies, not necessarily a rebound in final demand.
Invest to sustain yourself, rather than to grow
Industrial investment remains cautious, focused on protecting and optimizing existing assets. The quarter’s results suggest that this is not the time for expansion projects, as half of the companies did not invest in buildings or structures, but did increase investments in machinery, systems, and maintenance. This decision appears to reflect a desire to consolidate operations rather than risk growth in an environment that still lacks a solid foundation.
In contrast, investment expectations do show a restrained momentum: 91% plan to invest in machinery and systems next quarter, and nearly half expect to increase inventories.
The work doesn’t stop
Despite the challenging environment, employment in the industry remains stable, with more than two-thirds of companies reporting no change compared to the second quarter, and more than half maintaining the same level as a year ago.
For the last quarter of the year, future employment expectations also show no greater dynamism, as no major increases or contractions in the labor force are expected, even when segmenting the result by type of company.
What does become heterogeneous in this last sense are the remunerations, since there are gaps between the sizes of companies in the industry for workers and operators, professional and technical staff, and managers: large companies provide the highest remunerations, with large differences to medium and small companies.
One of the most striking findings in this regard is that the relationship—at 95%—between workers’ wages and the use of installed capacity remains. This means that as capital regains greater productivity, workers’ incomes—and their living conditions—will improve.
Overall, wages continue to rise, registering an average of $478 per month for this third quarter: an annualized increase of 13%, and an accumulated increase of 182% compared to the beginning of 2019, although this has occurred in a context of constant price adjustments.
The third quarter of 2025 demonstrated that Venezuelan industry is progressing, but it is doing so carefully, measuring each step. It is producing slightly more, better organizing its inputs, adjusting its investments toward operations, and managing its workforce without major changes. The sector is not expanding, but neither is it shrinking in a challenging environment. That is an achievement that should not be underestimated.
