The new dollar season has already begun in Venezuela: Between currency auctions, movements in the exchange rate gap and adjustments to dollar prices, this week marked the start of a new dynamic for the exchange rate in the country following the U.S. intervention.
In Ecosistema we explain what happened with the dollar, how the market reacted and why some prices began —for the first time in months— to move downwards .
1. The first injection of dollars was made in the new exchange rate system
This week, the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) carried out its first currency intervention under the new allocation of foreign currency derived from Venezuelan oil sales to the United States. According to Alejandro Grisanti, economist and director of the consulting and research firm Ecoanalítica, local banks Banesco, BBVA Provincial, Banco Mercantil, Banco Nacional de Crédito, and Bancamiga have already placed foreign currency through an auction, prioritizing companies in critical sectors such as health, food, and telecommunications.
The average rate in that first auction was 400 bolivars per dollar, a higher price than the official rate —which fluctuated between 344 and 352 bolivars per dollar during the week— and lower than the unofficial rate. Initially, Ecoanalítica estimated that the dollar placement would be $150 million. However, due to the difference in rates between the trading parties, as companies’ repayment capacity was lower than expected, the Central Bank of Venezuela’s allocation to private banks was approximately half that amount: about $75 million.
Furthermore, as the supply of dollars exceeded the payment capacity of companies in essential sectors, part of this surplus of foreign currency permeated into the retail market: or the market where the purchase and sale of foreign currency is generated in small amounts and which can be accessed by individuals, not just companies.
As a result of this initial allocation of resources, economist Asdrúbal Oliveros expects that future auctions will be expanded to include the participation of new private banks and more business sectors beyond the essential ones, he noted in an interview with Unión Radio.
2. The market reacts to auctions
The first wave of auctions had an immediate impact on market expectations: at the beginning of the week, the unofficial exchange rate briefly fell to 400 bolivars per dollar, before rising and stabilizing around 450 bolivars per dollar. This dynamic could indicate that while the initial injection of $75 million generated optimism—in contrast, all currency interventions in December 2025 totaled only $49 million—it did not reach the expected ceiling of $150 million, much less $300 million.
However, the first placement of foreign currency does seem to demonstrate that it is a feasible way to close the exchange rate gap in the short term, provided that the frequency of auctions is maintained and a controlled depreciation of the official rate is allowed.
Furthermore, if the offerings expand to more banks and companies, as Oliveros anticipates, the use of digital banking transactions in dollars would receive a boost, thus reducing the demand for cryptocurrencies, cash dollars, and, consequently, the exchange rate gap. Although the economist cautions that the use of cryptocurrencies will lose prominence, it will not disappear, “given that a significant portion of private sector hedging operations continue to be carried out through this mechanism,” he explains in X.
3. Is dollar inflation falling?
During this week, dollar inflation was negative for the first time since mid-2024: that is, on average, prices in dollars fell in Venezuela, according to estimates by economist Jesús Palacios Chacín.
Although prices for items like meat, chicken, and eggs fell by up to 50% in Caracas, other foods and products remained unchanged. This phenomenon is what economists call the ratchet effect: when prices rise rapidly in response to stimuli —such as uncertainty, inflation, or a widening exchange rate gap— but then take time to adjust once those stimuli disappear.
Venezuela is experiencing this effect, especially in non-perishable products or those that do not sell so quickly: As merchants finish selling the inventories they acquired at a higher price —when the exchange rate gap was more pronounced—, they will be able to adjust their profit margins and make the goods available at a lower price.
If the injections of foreign currency continue and the exchange rate gap keeps closing, these downward price adjustments in dollars will appear for more products, sooner rather than later .
