The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) recently published figures for inflation, global supply and demand, and GDP growth in Venezuela. This decision breaks the institutional silence that the country’s main financial institution has maintained since October 2014. The return of these publications occurs in a particular context: the rapprochement between the authorities in Caracas and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), through what the organization has called “low-level meetings.” This renewed transparency raises questions about whether we are witnessing a new effort toward technical transparency or a response to the demands of multilateral organizations.
Inflation: World Champions
Venezuela suffers from what economic literature describes as chronic inflation; that is, the economy has experienced a high rate of inflation for a prolonged period. Since 1983, when the annual rate was 6.2% , Venezuela’s annual inflation has consistently exceeded 10%.
To put it in perspective: in 2022, the peak of so-called “Bidenflation” that shocked American consumers and drew criticism of Joe Biden’s administration, the annualized inflation rate in the United States was 8%. A more contrasting example from our neighboring country: Colombian inflation averaged between 2% and 4% over the past decade.
And, according to the most recent data from the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV), chronic inflation persists despite the slowdown in the inflation rate experienced by the economy from February 2019 to December 2024. According to BCV figures, during this period the inflation rate fell from 344,509% to 48%, surpassing hyperinflation. However, the outlook changed radically during 2025.
The escalation of tensions with the US, the fall in exports and the subsequent drastic reduction in foreign exchange interventions, drove prices back towards accelerated growth, reaching an annualized variation of 475% at the end of last year.
With that figure, Venezuela reaffirms its position as the country with the highest inflation in the world. South Sudan (97.5%) and Zimbabwe (89%) completed the top three by the end of 2025.
As a result of the events of January 3, along with the legal reforms and increased cooperation with the US government that followed, the outlook for the end of 2026 is radically different – but the effect is not immediate.
According to data from the BCV, accumulated inflation in just the first two months of the year has already reached 47%, driven by a jump of 32.6% in January, which brought the year-on-year inflation to February 2026 to 617%.
At the end of 2025, the IMF projected that by the end of the following year, price increases would reach 682%. This figure seems far removed from the new reality projected after January 3rd: according to economist Asdrúbal Oliveros, the 2026 inflation rate will close at around 150%.
GDP: unstable growth
The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) also updated its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measurement, albeit in a format that departs from conventional statistical reports. Instead of presenting the nominal size of the economy on an annual basis, the issuing entity opted to publish preliminary figures on quarterly and annual growth rates by sector, covering the period between 2021 and 2025.
These figures reveal an economy that, despite year-on-year growth, has been unable to maintain a steady pace. The consolidated data shows that the 14.68% jump recorded in 2022—the period sardonically satirized as “Venezuela is fixed” or the “pax bodegonica”—failed to be sustained over time.
This trend suggests that the engines of growth have lost their initial momentum, now facing structural ceilings that are more difficult to overcome. It also highlights the extreme heterogeneity among the different sectors. If the report could be segmented by region, we could glimpse another dimension of inequality in the Venezuelan economy.
Not everything that glitters is gold
However, this new release of economic data has not been without its critics. Economist Leonardo Vera has pointed out the possibility of inconsistencies in the data. While the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) claims that oil activity grew by 13.41% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year, secondary sources and OPEC data show an increase in crude oil production volume of only 4% for the same period.
Vera also points out a significant difference in the weight of the hydrocarbon sector in GDP; it now represents 22% of the total, a significant difference from the historical value of this sector, which has traditionally been around 12.8%.
For his part, Henkel García, director of the consulting firm Albus Data and formerly an economic advisor to opposition leader María Corina Machado, stated that after adjusting Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue for inflation, the real revenue for 2025 was lower than that of 2024. A drop in real VAT revenue is usually an indicator of economic decline, which calls into question the reliability of officially published GDP growth rates.
Access to up-to-date, transparent, and high-quality data is generally a prerequisite for advancing any IMF assistance program. As a key player in the eventual debt restructuring and securing external financing, the International Monetary Fund requires a technical roadmap that can only be developed on a reliable statistical basis. These are aspects that Venezuela must not neglect in order to fully reintegrate into the global financial system and enable a long-term economic recovery.
However, for this eventual recovery to be sustainable, it is imperative to definitively reduce inflation—something that implies a necessary resizing of the size and role of the state. This requires a paradigm shift that includes fundamental reforms to stimulate private investment: readjusting labor regulations, reducing the tax burden, and restoring conditions that allow for the expansion of bank credit. These measures will be essential for the non-oil sector to gain traction and, in the medium and long term, cease to be a secondary player.
